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Prediction for CME (2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2021-07-24T00:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17370/-1 CME Note: Visible to the east in SOHO LASCO/C2 and C3; halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with eruption from AR 12849 (S18E47), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-23T23:42Z, and associated with C4.3 flare beginning 2021-07-23T23:54Z. From Lan Jian: no clear features of iCME arrival found on 07-26 to 07-28 (stream interface seen at ~2021-07-28T04:50Z). CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-26T23:59Z Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0 Predicted Dst min. in nT: -34 Predicted Dst min. time: 2021-07-27T10:00Z Prediction Method: Anemomilos Prediction Method Note: : Product: Dst_alert_status : Issued: 24-Jul-2021 16:00:01 UTC : JDIssued: 2459420.16669 : Number_of_Data_Records: 1 : Missing_data: 9999 : Source: SET Stream B (Anemomilos) algorithm : version: 3.48 # Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division # Contact: spacenvironment@spacenvironment.net # http://www.spacewx.com # # Forecast_summary_metadata: # AlertIssued is the alert issue time # PredictStart is the event predicted start time # PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time # EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert # GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5 # G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring, # is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. # A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat # to life or property. # G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions # that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution # is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten # life and/or property. # G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased # significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is # still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in # active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in # motion can do so. # G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains # information that is available at the time of issue. # G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being # actively monitored with information that is available at the # time of issue. # DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT # Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch # Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN)) # Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec # Status of the combined predicted Dst events relative to NOAA G-scale # AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring) # UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert) # SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch) # ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory) # LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning) # LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning) # CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and Xhf magnitude # C = small flare class # M = medium flare class # X = large flare class # 0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event # Bz is the estimated dominant Bz direction at Earth (N = northward, S = southward) # # AlertIssued PredictStart PredictPeak EL GX DST Pr Sr Vel Status CID Bz 202107241600 202107262359 202107271000 60 G2 -034 02 NN 750 SE C012 SLead Time: 55.17 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) on 2021-07-24T16:49Z |
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